Srinagar: A new study has identified more than a quarter of Jammu and Kashmir’s landscape as having “high” or “very high” susceptibility to landslides, days after a catastrophic but unrelated ice-and-rock collapse triggered deadly floods in Nepal.
Researchers at the University of Jammu have generated a landslide susceptibility map covering nearly 43,000sqkm of Jammu and Kashmir territory, classifying 24.4 per cent of the area as “high risk” and 3.6 per cent as “very high risk”. Their study, published on Friday in the journal Scientific Reports, has found that 87 per cent of 669 landslides recorded in the area have occurred in zones classified as having “high” or “very high” susceptibility, highlighting the hazards posed by unstable mountain terrain.
“Landslides, like ice-and-rock collapses and earthquakes, are inherently complex phenomena — their exact location and timing cannot be predicted,” said Avtar Singh Jasrotia, professor of geology in Jammu who led the study.
“What we can do is assess susceptibility, risk levels, and prepare with precautionary measures,” he told The Telegraph.
Jasrotia and his colleagues from the National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad, used a mix of satellite imagery, field surveys, and earlier landslide records to assess susceptibility across Jammu and Kashmir, excluding no-risk low-lying areas in the plains.
Their analysis suggests that the areas most vulnerable to landslides are clustered along Doda, Kishtwar, Poonch, Rajouri, and Ramban districts, with several hotspots along major roads, including NH-44, NH-244, NH-144A, Mughal Road, and the Kishwar-Kelong Road.
NH-44 is the main Jammu-Srinagar highway, connecting Jammu with Kashmir through Ramban; NH-244 runs through mountainous areas, including Doda and Kishtwar; and NH-144A connects Jammu with Poonch and Rajouri districts. The 84km Mughal Road links Poonch with Shopian and offers an alternative route between Jammu and the Valley.
The study has linked the concentration of landslides along these transportation corridors to a combination of steep slopes, fragile geological formations and human activities such as road construction, slope cutting, and the removal of natural vegetation.
The proximity to roads, slope, and distance from streams emerged as the three most important factors influencing landslide occurrence, the scientists said. Areas close to roads were particularly susceptible, underscoring the risks associated with infrastructure in mountainous terrain.
“The close association between landslide-prone areas and road networks highlights the role of human activities in destabilising slopes,” the researchers wrote in their study, saying similar findings have emerged from other studies in the Himalayan region.
Heavy rainfall can enhance the risk, particularly on already unstable slopes, Jasrotia said. As water seeps into the ground, it can weaken the soil and rock, turning intense or prolonged rainfall into a potential trigger for landslides.
The researchers have said the landslide susceptibility map they have developed is expected to help authorities closely monitor vulnerable areas, prioritise slope stabilisation measures and undertake controlled road construction in high- and very high-risk areas.
A 2023 study by scientists in India, Switzerland, and the US estimated that 85,000sqkm of highways in the Himalayan region are potentially exposed to landslides or avalanches.
Earlier this year, glaciologist Ashim Sattar at IIT Bhubaneswar and his colleagues identified 219 “hanging glaciers” in Uttarakhand’s Alaknanda basin, warning that unstable ice masses on steep slopes could break loose and trigger devastating ice-and-rock avalanches downstream.
“The mechanisms involved in such ice failures may be similar to those involved in the August 26 ice-and-rock collapse in Nepal that triggered the deadly floods,” Sattar said.
