NEW DELHI, July 30: India’s crude oil imports from Russia could climb to a record 3 million barrels per day (bpd) if supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue, according to a new analysis by global commodities intelligence firm Kpler.
The report said Russian crude remains India’s most important supply buffer during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, despite the country’s efforts to diversify its crude import basket over the past few years.
According to Kpler, Indian refiners have built greater flexibility into their sourcing strategy by increasing purchases from Russia, Venezuela, Africa and other Atlantic Basin producers. This diversified procurement strategy has helped reduce the risk of severe supply disruptions.
However, the outlook could change if security conditions in the Red Sea deteriorate further. While Saudi Arabia’s East-West (Yanbu) pipeline has recently supplied between 300,000 and 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to India, allowing cargoes to bypass vulnerable shipping routes, prolonged disruptions could force refiners to seek alternative supplies.
Kpler said that if Red Sea shipments are affected in August, Indian refiners are expected to increase purchases of Russian crude, secure additional spot cargoes from West Africa wherever available and draw down commercial crude inventories to bridge any short-term supply gap.
The analysis noted that Russia remains India’s most effective hedge against supply shocks, provided it can maintain export availability. Under favourable market conditions, Russian shipments to India could rise to around 3 million bpd or even higher, offsetting potential disruptions from other regions.
Even so, Kpler cautioned that Russia’s ability to raise exports is not guaranteed. The country’s upstream and downstream energy infrastructure continues to face attacks linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while Russian crude exports in July were estimated to be around 400,000 bpd lower than the previous month.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, remains an important supplier but on a much smaller scale. Its crude exports to India have averaged roughly 400,000 bpd in recent months-well below volumes imported from Russia. As a result, any interruption to Saudi shipments through the Red Sea is likely to have a more limited impact on India’s overall crude supply than a prolonged disruption to Russian exports.
Kpler’s Lead Crude Analyst, Sumit Ritolia, noted that while cargoes moving through the Red Sea can often be rerouted via the East-West pipeline, the SUMED pipeline, the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope, export routes from Russia’s Black Sea are far less flexible.
He added that the Novorossiysk export terminal plays a critical role not only in shipping Russian Urals crude to India but also in exporting Kazakhstan’s CPC crude to Europe. Any prolonged disruption at the Black Sea port could tighten global crude supplies, reshape trade flows and directly affect India’s largest source of imported oil.
Despite the geopolitical risks, Kpler believes India’s diversified sourcing strategy and strong dependence on Russian crude should help refiners manage supply challenges without triggering a severe shortage in the near term. (UNI)
