Faizan Arif, Kashmir Weather
If the situation doesn’t improve, Jammu and Kashmir is staring at a severe water shortage this summer. A fresh, active Western Disturbance is expected to bring widespread rain and snow on February 20th, but will that be enough to undo the damage? No. While this system might reduce the current precipitation deficit from over 80% to around 70%, it won’t be nearly sufficient.
What we truly need is a Mega Western Disturbance to turn things around. Thankfully, there are indications of multiple, potentially strong, Western Disturbances between February 25th and March 1st. Forecasts can change, but I remain hopeful. It all depends on how things unfold – let’s pray for that much-needed mega event.
Another piece of positive news is that rain and snow could continue into the first 20 days of March. However, these predictions are too far off for any certainty. But what if this expected precipitation doesn’t materialize? What if the deficit doesn’t drop below 40%?
In that case, water shortages – especially for irrigation – will likely hit agriculture and horticulture sectors hard. I have been warning about this crisis since November, highlighting the alarmingly low water levels of the Jhelum.
Over the past four years, I have closely monitored and highlighted this situation, and the trend is clear: winter precipitation is decreasing, and we are now in the sixth straight year of this decline. This is a catastrophic situation. How will our rivers survive if glaciers don’t receive the snowfall they need?
The purpose of this message is not to create panic but to raise awareness. I want my voice to be heard – especially by the administration. We need a serious, proactive approach to tackle this water crisis. We must protect our farmers from massive losses and develop secondary solutions to manage this looming disaster.
Even if late February and March bring substantial rain and snow, it won’t erase the deeper problem. This dangerous trend of declining winter precipitation could extend into a seventh, eighth, ninth, or even tenth straight year.
We cannot afford to wait and watch.
We can build internet networks, bridges, railways, and airports – but once water is lost, it cannot be brought back. No technology can generate water to replenish our rivers.
We must adapt to climate change, devise strategies to mitigate its impact, and prepare for the future. The leadership must urgently convene and treat this developing crisis with the seriousness it deserves.
Yes, people may forget about the water crisis if it rains and snows on February 20th. But I won’t. And neither should we. This will not change the overall situation. It’s time to act.
