Syed Adnan
“It’s all going in Omar Abdullah’s favor”, a friend remarked as the news of Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, aka Sarjan Barkati, filing his nomination papers from Ganderbal constituency became a point of discussion on a shop-front. “It’s only giving Omar more publicity and strengthening his belief among voters”. Between the lines, the friend seemed to suggest a lot, but left a lot unsaid.
Ever since the assembly election announcement for J&K was made by the Election Commission of India, more eyes than anything else seem to be on the candidature of Omar Abdullah, a former chief minister and a vice-president of National Conference. After initial reluctance to fight the assembly election “as long as J&K is a Union Territory”, Omar had a change of mind for some of the right reasons—the same reasons that should have led Mehbooba Mufti also to change her mind. Indeed, if the Assembly elected under UT is a “powerless entity” for the former chief minister, why does she expect her colleagues to be part of such a “powerless entity”? It is like safeguarding your honour and prestige at the altar of your colleagues’ honour and prestige as if it were less of a thing to care of. It is also, in the eyes of public at large, futile for the PDP to float its manifesto with lofty claims if its president herself feels that the Assembly under UT is a “powerless entity”. It’s not only demoralizing for the party cadre, but repulsive for the voters too. Anyways, it is not the point of discussion. Omar is.
Why all eyes are on Omar’s candidature can be seen in the backdrop of his humiliating loss in the recently-held Lok Sabha elections, where Er Rashid, who is presently serving jail under UAPA, swept the polls in the Baramulla constituency. It was on everyone’s radar to see where Omar would fight the Assembly polls from. So when he choose his home turf Ganderbal, which was not a surprise though, it set the alarm bells ringing among his opponents—both at New Delhi as well as J&K. On the personal front, it is also a fact that Omar continues to be perturbed about the poll results, but it doesn’t have to do necessarily do with his uncertainty about Ganderbal. It has everything to do with the LS poll debacle of Baramulla. Nothing more. Nothing less.
What has now lent credence to speculations that all eyes are on Omar—his defeat in particular—is the fact that jailed cleric Sarjan Barkati, who originally hails from Shopian, filed his nomination from Ganderbal (or was allegedly made to file it from there by the powers that be). And what fuelled these speculations further is that Barkati filed his nomination from Beerwah constituency in Budgam also, where Omar was supposed to file another nomination from. But, as Omar Abdullah himself told an interview to a Delhi-based news portal, he filed the nomination from Budgam instead of Beerwah at the last minute to “see if Barkati nomination was a ploy against his person.” It eventually proved to be a correct assessment, giving both Omar, his party-men and public to believe that some sort of a conspiracy was being hatched to field independents against Omar—something which may eventually prove beneficial for him in the poll contest from both Ganderbal and Budgam.
Omar Abdullah continues to be at the centre of a poll focus in J&K, alongside his National Conference. With each passing day, he only seems to be emerging as a leader to reckon with. And part of the credit goes to the negative publicity that appears to be going in his favor. Since other parties are more focused on Omar and NC rather than convincing people about their own party agendas, it is allowing Omar to raise the narrative that all forces were hell-bent upon harming his poll prospect. Otherwise, as his argument rightly says, why is a person from Shopian, who is accused of terror, allowed to be fielded in the poll fray from Ganderbal or Beerwah where nobody knows him—the argument that he was so-called crowed-puller of yesteryears notwithstanding! And how does the BJP-led Government eventually reconcile with the fact that should Barkati win from Ganderbal or Beerwah, how would it perceive the vote? The sentiment vote against 2019 decisions, as was the case with Er. Rashid? It is an enigma that will continue to haunt BJP in both cases. Akin to this for Rashid also, it is a double-whammy to think of a post-poll scenario, where he wins on a sentiment vote and then joins hands with forces anti to this thought.
For now, Omar Abdullah emerges as the most looked-for politician in the poll fray. If he wins, it would be interesting to see how he traverses the rough road, where the new Assembly has a daunting task of dealing with LG on the one hand and people’s aspirations on the other. However, it appears that the former chief minister is determined to take this ‘fight’ upfront, and translate his poll manifesto in reality, especially undoing the “wrongs” done to people over the years, and restoring their civil liberties which form the bedrock of Constitutional guarantees to the people. Omar can now be the right person at the right place, having learned from his past experiences, and possibly, the past mistakes of NC too.
Lastly, Omar would be watched for his pre-poll narratives too, wherein he would continue to raise the issue of alleged proxies being fielded in a desperate bid by his opponents to defeat him. His opponents will continue to target him, which may well lead to more of its negative publicity. The more his opponents do it, the more it may favor him. As the friend quoted above said, “It all goes in Omar Abdullah’s favor.” A lot of credit for this would certainly go to his opponents—unless their poll prophecy favors them.
(NOTE: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Kashmir Dot Com, its editorial staff, or its affiliates. KDC does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of any claims made in this opinion piece.)
